Charleston, SC forecast for September 29, 2009

Well just lovely......the first wxchallenge forecast day is showing a midnight low. MOS is from 58-59.....Raw is upper 50s to lower 60s, so still some pretty good agreement amongst the models as far as tomorrow's low......highs however have a bit of a spread......Raw GFS is around mid-70s.....Raw Nam is around upper 70s and both NAM and GFS MOS is right at 80. It should be noted that I'm looking at the 12z Raw GFS and 18z Raw Nam......I will likely hold off on a final decision until the 18z GFS comes in. Locations to their northwest today that are behind the front have stayed primarily in the mid to upper 70s, so my initial thoughts right now are to go with upper 70s for tomorrow's high. Last night's 0z MOS had tomorrow's high at 81, so it has only gone down one degree......Right now....I'm thinking lows around the mid-upper 50s and highs in the upper 70s.......winds in the upper teens to near 20 kts....it looks like there will be some pretty windy conditions as the front comes in, but winds should begin to weaken some towards morning and pick back up again in the afternoon........rainfall, RIGHT NOW, is zero however, both Nam and GFS try to put a little rainfall in their area overnight tonight along the front....there is some activity off to their northwest right now...Raw GFS(12z) shows no rainfall, but Raw Nam has around 0.05 but ending before midnight, and RUC also puts some activity developing across their area after midnight, so it really looks like alot will depend on the exact timing of that front and whether or not the line will fill in.....all this is very light generally<0.07"...As I am writing this, the activity to their north appears to be dying some......I feel like it will be shortly after midnight when the front makes it through, and I think I will likely keep rainfall at nil.....but will hold off until 18z data comes out to make my final decision.........

Update......18z Raw GFS was almost exactly the same and shower/storm activity to their north/northwest continues to weaken so...........

Forecast for tomorrow......
High - 78
Low - 58
Wind Speed - 21 kts
Precip - 0.00


Today's Actuals......
High - 89
Low - 64
Max Wind - 21 (even though I didn't forecast a speed)
Precip - 0

Charleston, SC Trial Forecast for September 27, 2009

MOS is at 63-65 for the overnight low....last night reached a low of only 72 with cloudy skies and southerly winds between 5 and 10 with higher gusts.......normals are around mid-60s for lows and lower 80s for highs......I think 63 is a little too cool with winds staying between 5 and 10 overnight again....If winds go calm, though, lower 60s seem possible....skies are forecast to clear overnight and drier air is already filtering in, so it should be cooler tonight than last night......with that said I think I will go with 65 for the low and 89 for the high (MOS ranges from 87-89) since it has reached 86 today with cloudy skies....I could even possibly see 90 or better, but whateva.....

Forecast for June 16, 2009

Tomorrow.....Expect sunny skies with a low around 71 and a high around 95.

NWS............Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 101. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph....low around 71.

Today's Actuals

High......92
Low.......70

Forecast for June 12, 2009

Tomorrow......Expect partly cloudy skies....low around 70 and a high around 92.....Very small chance of a shower/storm.....

NWS........A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 97. Calm wind becoming south southwest between 5 and 10 mph.....low around 70.

Today's high.....91
Today's low......72

Forecast for June 11, 2009

Haven't had a whole lotta time to look at things today, but here's what I gather with a quick glance..........With cloud cover expected to linger through the overnight hours, I will likely go on the higher end of guidance for the overnight low, and with clouds expected through the day tomorrow...I will more than likely undercut guidance by a degree or two.

Tomorrow.......expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a low around 72 and a high near 92.

NWS..........Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming southwest between 10 and 15 mph......low 71.

Today's high........92
Today's low.........70

Forecast for June 10, 2009

Guidance is in unbelievably good agreement on the highs and lows for tomorrow.......MOS is showing 70 and 94.....Raw guidance is still a little out there, mainly on the lows which range from the lower to mid 70s for the low and lower to mid 90s for the high. I will likely undercut on both the low and high for tomorrow.....on the low, I'm still just going on the trend that MOS has been seeming to have of overshooting, and for the high, I'm gonna undercut a degree or two based on the possibility of more cloud cover tomorrow and also a very small chance of some rainfall. The rain isn't too big of a concern.....anything that does develop will likely be VERY isolated with the best rain chances coming Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend.

Tomorrow.........expect partly cloudy skies..VERY slight chance of a shower/storm....low around 68 and a high around 92.

NWS...............Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 97. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph....low around 70.

Today's high........90
Today's low.........63

Forecast for June 9, 2009

Everything is pointing to highs getting into the lower 90s tomorrow and lows around the mid 60s.......MOS shows lows around 65-66 and highs around 92 to 93. Raw guidance has lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s. Given the trend over the past several days and with the possibility of a few more clouds tomorrow than today, I will undercut guidance somewhat once again for tomorrow.

Tomorrow........expect mostly sunny skies with a low around 64 and a high around 90.

NWS........Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming southwest between 5 and 10 mph. Low 65.

Today's Actuals

Today's high......86
Today's low.......56

Forecast for June 7, 2009

Models seem to be having a pretty hard time getting a handle on this last cold front and seem to have underestimated its strength, so with that in mind, I will likely go a little lower than guidance in some areas for tomorrow. Right now, lows from MOS range from 55-57......we dropped all the way to 53 (which was a new record low) last night, and with similar conditions expected for tonight, I will likely go on the cooler side again. The record low for tomorrow was 51 set back in 2000.....I don't think we'll quite make that tonight though, but another very unseasonably cool night looks to be in store once again. As for highs....MOS is between 90 and 91, where Raw NAM is showing upper 80s and Raw GFS is showing lower 90s. Since models have been kind of overshooting high temps with this latest cold front, I will likely go in the direction of Raw NAM and undercut all other guidance for highs tomorrow.

Tomorrow......expect another gorgeous sunny day with a high around 88 and a low around 55.

NWS............Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph. Low 55.

Today's high.........84
Today's low...........53 (record)

Forecast for June 6, 2009

Kinda late with this entry, but here goes anyway...........fairly basic........
Lows for tonight range from mid to upper 50s from MOS....Raw shows a bit warmer with upper 50s to lower 60s.......With clear skies and light winds expected overnight, will likely go on the lower end of guidance.......as for highs......guidance ranges from around the lower to mid 80s.....with mostly sunny skies expected again for tomorrow, will likely go on the higher end of guidance for tomorrow's high........

Tomorrow.......expect sunny skies.....low around 56 and a high around 87.

NWS has same numbers........

Yesterday's actuals (June 4, 2009)
High.........84
Low..........68

Forecast for June 4, 2009

I don't really understand what's going on with guidance today.......MOS is showing 64 and Raw is showing lower to mid-60s.....my problem with this is that last night, we reached a low of 66 with near clear skies and light to calm winds. Cloud cover should be greater tonight than last night, and locations to our southeast only dropped to around the upper 60's to near 70 overnight. I'm thinking I will go over all guidance values right now and go at least around 67-68 for the low. With cloudy skies expected tomorrow and a good chance of rain, I think lower 80's seems reasonable since we only reached 85 so far today. Guidance is all in good agreement on this, both Raw and MOS. Now, for the bigger question.....RAINFALL!! HPC is showing around 1.12" for tomorrow....GFS Raw is showing around 1.00".......and Nam is showing less than 0.10". It's tricky because if you get a heavier storm, you could easily see around an inch or more. HPC, however, is showing a pretty widespread area of over an inch. With what appears to be a pretty slow-moving system, I think I will go around an inch possible out of this system for tomorrow....UPDATE!!.....Raw NAM is now kinda getting on board with both overnight lows and rainfall. It's now showing rainfall amounts possibly up to around a quarter of an inch and a low around 70 tonight.....I think all guidance will come in a bit warmer for tonight, so with this kinda confirming it, I will go with the upper 60s at least for the overnight low and keep rainfall amounts of around an inch.

Tomorrow.........expect mostly cloudy skies with better rain/storm chances.......low around 69 and a high around 82. Rainfall amounts around an inch are possible. A front will come through and cool us briefly for the day on Friday and bring in some drier air, but then we will heat right back up for the weekend.

NWS forecast for tomorrow........Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly between 11am and 4pm. High near 82. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.....low 66.

Today's high.....85
Today's low......66

Forecast for June 3, 2009

My biggest concern for tomorrow will be the overnight low........MOS is at around 65-67....Raw is in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Last night we reached a low of around 64 with about as good of conditions as possible for the best radiational cooling (clear skies and calm winds). With the possibility of a little more cloud cover tonight, I want to lean towards the higher end of guidance for the low, but I kinda lean more towards Raw's numbers. The only thing that bothers me is that the winds are still forecast to be light. I still think I will go on the higher side for the overnight low. As for an afternoon high.....this is actually kinda tricky as well. I would expect moisture to continue to increase over the next day or so leading to better rain chances and also more cloud cover; however, with the large system in the Gulf, some of that moisture could get cut off. I still think we'll see an increase in cloud cover and also better chances of rainfall tomorrow, so with that said, I will lead more towards the lower end of guidance for the afternoon high.

Tomorrow.......expect partly cloudy skies with slightly better rain chances.......low around 67 and a high around 87.

NWS forecast for tomorrow......Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms........overnight low around 65.

Today's high......90
Today's low........64

Forecast for June 2, 2009

Tomorrow.......Expect mostly sunny skies.....only VERY isolated shower/storm activity is expected, with best chances for rain staying well to our north. Expect a day similar to what we've seen today....low around 63 and a high around 91.

NWS forecast for tomorrow.......mostly sunny....high 87...low 64

Saturday, May 30, 2009 actuals.....
Low......57
High.....86

Forecast for May 30, 2009

MOS ranges from 57-60 for the low tonight....and around 87/88 for the high. Raw is in pretty good agreement as far as highs, but it is showing lows around the mid 60s. Today, we reached a low of 59, so with similar conditions expected for tonight and possibly even fewer clouds and very light winds, I will probably go on the lower end of guidance. I wanna even undercut the lowest guidance right now by a few degrees, but don't know for certain. Some locations off to our west dropped to 55 overnight.......probably won't go that low, but thought it may have been worth mentioning.



Tomorrow.....expect sunny skies.......low around 58 and a high around 87.

Today's high......81
Today's low.......59

Forecast for May 29, 2009

Tomorrow.......expect mostly sunny skies.....low around 60 and a high around 84.

Today's high.......86
Today's low........68

Forecast for May 28, 2009

Tomorrow........A few showers/storms may be around in the morning, but when the front moves through by late morning/early afternoon, drier air will move in behind it and end our rain chances. Expect skies to clear throughout the day......low around 68 and a high around 85.

Today's high.......89
Today's low........65

Forecast for May 27, 2009

Looking at basically the same scenario tomorrow as today........the big questions are how much cloud cover will we see and will we see any rainfall here? We did receive a decent storm here today that dropped our temps from 79 down to 72.......just to give an idea of the impact rain can have on a temp forecast. I think we will see a little drier air tomorrow and that should mean less cloud cover and also lesser rain chances. Models are in good agreement, both raw and MOS, that highs will be around the mid 80s and lows around the mid-upper 60s. With less cloud cover tonight and light winds, will likely go with the low end of guidance, and also with smaller rain chances and less clouds anticipated tomorrow, will likely go on the higher end of guidance. Some places off to our west that did see a good deal of sunshine today reached the upper 80s and even some 90s were showing up. I don't think we will quite make 90 tomorrow, but if we do get alot of sunshine, upper 80s seems reasonable. I will likely go a little safer and stick with guidance values around the mid-80s.

Tomorrow...........expect more scattered showers/storms.....a little less coverage than what we've been seeing. I think the best rain chances will be to our north and west along a frontal boundary that should work in here by around Thursday. Low around 66 and a high around 86.

Today's high........81
Today's low.........67

Forecast for May 26, 2009

A bit of a tricky forecast for tomorrow. The biggest concern I have is in regards to the amount of cloud cover both overnight and tomorrow. The past couple of nights clouds have hung on pretty strong, and that has allowed temps to only drop into the upper 60s. MOS is showing a slightly cooler night tonight while still holding onto the cloud cover, but it brings the winds down to near calm. If clouds clear out and winds do go calm, I could see reaching the mid 60s and possibly even the lower 60s, but if clouds linger and winds stay up, I would think more around the upper 60s again. As for highs........again, a bit tricky with the amount of cloud cover. MOS ranges from around 81 to 84 right now......84 is obviously showing less cloud cover, 81 showing more. There's the problem.....how much sunshine will we see tomorrow? Yesterday, we got a few peeks of sun, and our high was 81, but so far today, with a little more cloud cover, we've only gotten to 79. I could see easily reaching the mid 80s with some sunshine tomorrow, but I just wonder how much cloud cover there will be and also how much rain will be around. MOS is going with another good shot tomorrow....around 70%. Most of the models seem to keep the BEST rain chances to our east and southeast, but you really can't tell this time of year. Even if we don't get the actual rainfall, we could still get outflow from some storms that could drop our temps considerably. At this point, I am thinking more on shooting the middle for the low, and going a bit on the warmer side for highs thinking that we could see some sunshine tomorrow.

Now models seem to holding on to clouds a bit more tomorrow. MOS has gone down to 81-82 and brought lows up to 65-68. Still think I will go on the warmer side.

Tomorrow.....scattered showers/storms again.....low around 68 and a high around 83.


Friday's high........77
Friday's low.........67

Forecast for May 22, 2009.

Tomorrow......expect slightly better rain chances tomorrow, mainly south of interstate 20 with better chances coming by the weekend. Overnight low only gets down to around 67 and am expecting a high tomorrow to only get up to around 76. Breezy conditions possible once again. Rainfall amounts should generally be less than a tenth of an inch.

Today's high......75
Today's low.......63

Forecast for May 21, 2009

A good spread in guidance once again........MOS lows range from 59-62....RAW guidance shows lows in the lower 60s. I would expect clouds to stick around tonight.......that combined with winds staying up overnight....will go on the higher end of guidance for my low tomorrow. With clouds expected through the day tomorrow as that system in the Gulf moves nearer, our high temps should be a little cooler. MOS ranges from 75-81 and Raw ranges from lower 70s to near 80. The cooler GFS is also showing much better rain chances for tomorrow, so I think that's why it's holding on with the cooler temps. I think I will lean more towards the warmer NAM and think that much of the activity that develops tomorrow will be isolated with better rain chances coming for Friday and into the weekend.

Yesterday, I forecasted a low for today of 53 which I still think was a decent forecast considering that the low of 51 had to have only been reached for a very brief period because the hourly obs both before and after the low was reached both showed 53. I was banking on the winds staying up overnight, which they did for the most part, but they went calm for a few brief periods. I had mentioned the possibility of cloud cover last night, but I didn't have much faith in that. The air was so dry, but I thought models may have been picking up on blowoff from the system in the Gulf.

Tomorrow.........expect partly to mostly cloudy skies......low around 62 and a high around 78. Breezy conditions once again with a small chance of an afternoon shower/storm.

Today's high......83
Today's low.......51

It looks like the disturbance in the Gulf will just drift around in the Gulf for the next day or so, and some models bring it inland by around Friday and into the weekend before a shortwave trough comes and pushes it out of the area by around the middle or end of next week.

Forecast for May 20, 2009

Was originally thinking around 51...ish for tomorrow's low, but with winds expected to stay up tonight, I may go a little higher than that. Also with the possibility of some clouds moving in overnight, that could potentially hold temperatures up a bit. Raw guidance suggests lows only in the mid-upper 50s, but MOS is showing around 49-51. It seems Raw has been a bit high lately, so I may undercut it just a little. I went with a forecast low for this morning at around 49 based on the assumption that winds would stay up, but they went calm for a few hours last night. I guess that was enough to drop the low last night down to 46....the same scenario is kinda setting up tonight. A few questions I have are 1) will the winds really stay up overnight?, and 2) will clouds indeed move in overnight? I have better confidence in the winds staying up overnight tonight since all guidance seems to be showing that, and as that disturbance in the Gulf moves nearer, the pressure gradient should tighten some. I just wonder about the cloud cover really......with such dry air in place, it seems hard to get clouds in here overnight. I'm gonna go for it though based on these assumptions with........

Tomorrow......expect mostly sunny skies again, with clouds on the increase.....morning low around 53, and an afternoon high around 80.

Today's high....75
Today's low.....46

Continuing to watch the disturbance moving into the Gulf........it's not tropical yet, but will continue to watch for potential rain chances in here towards the end of the week and especially into the weekend.

Forecast for May 19, 2009

A bit of a spread amongst guidance today.....
Raw NAM has overnight lows only getting down to around the mid 50s.....Raw GFS has the overnight low getting down to around 50.......MOS ranges from 45 to 48.......I really think 45 will be too low, but with clear skies once again and calming winds, it looks like another cool night is in store. Raw does show winds staying at around 5 to 10 knots overnight, so if that does happen, temps could stay up a little more tonight. The record low for tomorrow is at 42 set back in 1976, but I don't think we'll get close to that. I think I will go on the higher end of guidance for my forecast low tomorrow.........



Tomorrow.....expect another breezy day with winds between 10 and 15 mph......overnight low around 49, and with sunny skies expected once again, an afternoon high at around 76.

Today's high.......74
Today's low........47

On another note......an area of disturbed weather has developed around eastern Cuba. National Hurricane Center is watching this area for potential development over the next couple of days, however, there is a good deal of shear in place right now. If any development from this system takes place, it should be fairly slow.........will continue to watch this as it could impact our weater by the end of this weekend.

Forecast for May 18, 2009

The 48 low I posted yesterday was meant for tonight's overnight low. With clearing skies, but winds staying up overnight, 48 still sounds good to me for the morning low. 45 is the record low for tomorrow.....I don't think we'll quite make that, but it will still be an unseasonably cool day. Skies will be sunny tomorrow.......guidance is in good agreement with highs around 74.....I wonder how much cold air advection will take place tomorrow with continued gusty NNE winds? It could potentially hold temperatures down even more, but I will stick with guidance.

Today's high - 69 at 2:53 this morning.
Afternoon high - around 63

Tomorrow

Forecast tomorrow

Midnight high....near 70
Daytime high.....64
Overnight low......48