MOS ranges from 57-60 for the low tonight....and around 87/88 for the high. Raw is in pretty good agreement as far as highs, but it is showing lows around the mid 60s. Today, we reached a low of 59, so with similar conditions expected for tonight and possibly even fewer clouds and very light winds, I will probably go on the lower end of guidance. I wanna even undercut the lowest guidance right now by a few degrees, but don't know for certain. Some locations off to our west dropped to 55 overnight.......probably won't go that low, but thought it may have been worth mentioning.
Tomorrow.....expect sunny skies.......low around 58 and a high around 87.
Today's high......81
Today's low.......59
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Forecast for May 29, 2009
Tomorrow.......expect mostly sunny skies.....low around 60 and a high around 84.
Today's high.......86
Today's low........68
Today's high.......86
Today's low........68
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Forecast for May 28, 2009
Tomorrow........A few showers/storms may be around in the morning, but when the front moves through by late morning/early afternoon, drier air will move in behind it and end our rain chances. Expect skies to clear throughout the day......low around 68 and a high around 85.
Today's high.......89
Today's low........65
Today's high.......89
Today's low........65
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Forecast for May 27, 2009
Looking at basically the same scenario tomorrow as today........the big questions are how much cloud cover will we see and will we see any rainfall here? We did receive a decent storm here today that dropped our temps from 79 down to 72.......just to give an idea of the impact rain can have on a temp forecast. I think we will see a little drier air tomorrow and that should mean less cloud cover and also lesser rain chances. Models are in good agreement, both raw and MOS, that highs will be around the mid 80s and lows around the mid-upper 60s. With less cloud cover tonight and light winds, will likely go with the low end of guidance, and also with smaller rain chances and less clouds anticipated tomorrow, will likely go on the higher end of guidance. Some places off to our west that did see a good deal of sunshine today reached the upper 80s and even some 90s were showing up. I don't think we will quite make 90 tomorrow, but if we do get alot of sunshine, upper 80s seems reasonable. I will likely go a little safer and stick with guidance values around the mid-80s.
Tomorrow...........expect more scattered showers/storms.....a little less coverage than what we've been seeing. I think the best rain chances will be to our north and west along a frontal boundary that should work in here by around Thursday. Low around 66 and a high around 86.
Today's high........81
Today's low.........67
Tomorrow...........expect more scattered showers/storms.....a little less coverage than what we've been seeing. I think the best rain chances will be to our north and west along a frontal boundary that should work in here by around Thursday. Low around 66 and a high around 86.
Today's high........81
Today's low.........67
Monday, May 25, 2009
Forecast for May 26, 2009
A bit of a tricky forecast for tomorrow. The biggest concern I have is in regards to the amount of cloud cover both overnight and tomorrow. The past couple of nights clouds have hung on pretty strong, and that has allowed temps to only drop into the upper 60s. MOS is showing a slightly cooler night tonight while still holding onto the cloud cover, but it brings the winds down to near calm. If clouds clear out and winds do go calm, I could see reaching the mid 60s and possibly even the lower 60s, but if clouds linger and winds stay up, I would think more around the upper 60s again. As for highs........again, a bit tricky with the amount of cloud cover. MOS ranges from around 81 to 84 right now......84 is obviously showing less cloud cover, 81 showing more. There's the problem.....how much sunshine will we see tomorrow? Yesterday, we got a few peeks of sun, and our high was 81, but so far today, with a little more cloud cover, we've only gotten to 79. I could see easily reaching the mid 80s with some sunshine tomorrow, but I just wonder how much cloud cover there will be and also how much rain will be around. MOS is going with another good shot tomorrow....around 70%. Most of the models seem to keep the BEST rain chances to our east and southeast, but you really can't tell this time of year. Even if we don't get the actual rainfall, we could still get outflow from some storms that could drop our temps considerably. At this point, I am thinking more on shooting the middle for the low, and going a bit on the warmer side for highs thinking that we could see some sunshine tomorrow.
Now models seem to holding on to clouds a bit more tomorrow. MOS has gone down to 81-82 and brought lows up to 65-68. Still think I will go on the warmer side.
Tomorrow.....scattered showers/storms again.....low around 68 and a high around 83.
Friday's high........77
Friday's low.........67
Now models seem to holding on to clouds a bit more tomorrow. MOS has gone down to 81-82 and brought lows up to 65-68. Still think I will go on the warmer side.
Tomorrow.....scattered showers/storms again.....low around 68 and a high around 83.
Friday's high........77
Friday's low.........67
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Forecast for May 22, 2009.
Tomorrow......expect slightly better rain chances tomorrow, mainly south of interstate 20 with better chances coming by the weekend. Overnight low only gets down to around 67 and am expecting a high tomorrow to only get up to around 76. Breezy conditions possible once again. Rainfall amounts should generally be less than a tenth of an inch.
Today's high......75
Today's low.......63
Today's high......75
Today's low.......63
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Forecast for May 21, 2009
A good spread in guidance once again........MOS lows range from 59-62....RAW guidance shows lows in the lower 60s. I would expect clouds to stick around tonight.......that combined with winds staying up overnight....will go on the higher end of guidance for my low tomorrow. With clouds expected through the day tomorrow as that system in the Gulf moves nearer, our high temps should be a little cooler. MOS ranges from 75-81 and Raw ranges from lower 70s to near 80. The cooler GFS is also showing much better rain chances for tomorrow, so I think that's why it's holding on with the cooler temps. I think I will lean more towards the warmer NAM and think that much of the activity that develops tomorrow will be isolated with better rain chances coming for Friday and into the weekend.
Yesterday, I forecasted a low for today of 53 which I still think was a decent forecast considering that the low of 51 had to have only been reached for a very brief period because the hourly obs both before and after the low was reached both showed 53. I was banking on the winds staying up overnight, which they did for the most part, but they went calm for a few brief periods. I had mentioned the possibility of cloud cover last night, but I didn't have much faith in that. The air was so dry, but I thought models may have been picking up on blowoff from the system in the Gulf.
Tomorrow.........expect partly to mostly cloudy skies......low around 62 and a high around 78. Breezy conditions once again with a small chance of an afternoon shower/storm.
Today's high......83
Today's low.......51
It looks like the disturbance in the Gulf will just drift around in the Gulf for the next day or so, and some models bring it inland by around Friday and into the weekend before a shortwave trough comes and pushes it out of the area by around the middle or end of next week.
Yesterday, I forecasted a low for today of 53 which I still think was a decent forecast considering that the low of 51 had to have only been reached for a very brief period because the hourly obs both before and after the low was reached both showed 53. I was banking on the winds staying up overnight, which they did for the most part, but they went calm for a few brief periods. I had mentioned the possibility of cloud cover last night, but I didn't have much faith in that. The air was so dry, but I thought models may have been picking up on blowoff from the system in the Gulf.
Tomorrow.........expect partly to mostly cloudy skies......low around 62 and a high around 78. Breezy conditions once again with a small chance of an afternoon shower/storm.
Today's high......83
Today's low.......51
It looks like the disturbance in the Gulf will just drift around in the Gulf for the next day or so, and some models bring it inland by around Friday and into the weekend before a shortwave trough comes and pushes it out of the area by around the middle or end of next week.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Forecast for May 20, 2009
Was originally thinking around 51...ish for tomorrow's low, but with winds expected to stay up tonight, I may go a little higher than that. Also with the possibility of some clouds moving in overnight, that could potentially hold temperatures up a bit. Raw guidance suggests lows only in the mid-upper 50s, but MOS is showing around 49-51. It seems Raw has been a bit high lately, so I may undercut it just a little. I went with a forecast low for this morning at around 49 based on the assumption that winds would stay up, but they went calm for a few hours last night. I guess that was enough to drop the low last night down to 46....the same scenario is kinda setting up tonight. A few questions I have are 1) will the winds really stay up overnight?, and 2) will clouds indeed move in overnight? I have better confidence in the winds staying up overnight tonight since all guidance seems to be showing that, and as that disturbance in the Gulf moves nearer, the pressure gradient should tighten some. I just wonder about the cloud cover really......with such dry air in place, it seems hard to get clouds in here overnight. I'm gonna go for it though based on these assumptions with........
Tomorrow......expect mostly sunny skies again, with clouds on the increase.....morning low around 53, and an afternoon high around 80.
Today's high....75
Today's low.....46
Continuing to watch the disturbance moving into the Gulf........it's not tropical yet, but will continue to watch for potential rain chances in here towards the end of the week and especially into the weekend.
Tomorrow......expect mostly sunny skies again, with clouds on the increase.....morning low around 53, and an afternoon high around 80.
Today's high....75
Today's low.....46
Continuing to watch the disturbance moving into the Gulf........it's not tropical yet, but will continue to watch for potential rain chances in here towards the end of the week and especially into the weekend.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Forecast for May 19, 2009
A bit of a spread amongst guidance today.....
Raw NAM has overnight lows only getting down to around the mid 50s.....Raw GFS has the overnight low getting down to around 50.......MOS ranges from 45 to 48.......I really think 45 will be too low, but with clear skies once again and calming winds, it looks like another cool night is in store. Raw does show winds staying at around 5 to 10 knots overnight, so if that does happen, temps could stay up a little more tonight. The record low for tomorrow is at 42 set back in 1976, but I don't think we'll get close to that. I think I will go on the higher end of guidance for my forecast low tomorrow.........
Tomorrow.....expect another breezy day with winds between 10 and 15 mph......overnight low around 49, and with sunny skies expected once again, an afternoon high at around 76.
Today's high.......74
Today's low........47
On another note......an area of disturbed weather has developed around eastern Cuba. National Hurricane Center is watching this area for potential development over the next couple of days, however, there is a good deal of shear in place right now. If any development from this system takes place, it should be fairly slow.........will continue to watch this as it could impact our weater by the end of this weekend.
Raw NAM has overnight lows only getting down to around the mid 50s.....Raw GFS has the overnight low getting down to around 50.......MOS ranges from 45 to 48.......I really think 45 will be too low, but with clear skies once again and calming winds, it looks like another cool night is in store. Raw does show winds staying at around 5 to 10 knots overnight, so if that does happen, temps could stay up a little more tonight. The record low for tomorrow is at 42 set back in 1976, but I don't think we'll get close to that. I think I will go on the higher end of guidance for my forecast low tomorrow.........
Tomorrow.....expect another breezy day with winds between 10 and 15 mph......overnight low around 49, and with sunny skies expected once again, an afternoon high at around 76.
Today's high.......74
Today's low........47
On another note......an area of disturbed weather has developed around eastern Cuba. National Hurricane Center is watching this area for potential development over the next couple of days, however, there is a good deal of shear in place right now. If any development from this system takes place, it should be fairly slow.........will continue to watch this as it could impact our weater by the end of this weekend.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Forecast for May 18, 2009
The 48 low I posted yesterday was meant for tonight's overnight low. With clearing skies, but winds staying up overnight, 48 still sounds good to me for the morning low. 45 is the record low for tomorrow.....I don't think we'll quite make that, but it will still be an unseasonably cool day. Skies will be sunny tomorrow.......guidance is in good agreement with highs around 74.....I wonder how much cold air advection will take place tomorrow with continued gusty NNE winds? It could potentially hold temperatures down even more, but I will stick with guidance.
Today's high - 69 at 2:53 this morning.
Afternoon high - around 63
Today's high - 69 at 2:53 this morning.
Afternoon high - around 63
Saturday, May 16, 2009
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