A good spread in guidance once again........MOS lows range from 59-62....RAW guidance shows lows in the lower 60s. I would expect clouds to stick around tonight.......that combined with winds staying up overnight....will go on the higher end of guidance for my low tomorrow. With clouds expected through the day tomorrow as that system in the Gulf moves nearer, our high temps should be a little cooler. MOS ranges from 75-81 and Raw ranges from lower 70s to near 80. The cooler GFS is also showing much better rain chances for tomorrow, so I think that's why it's holding on with the cooler temps. I think I will lean more towards the warmer NAM and think that much of the activity that develops tomorrow will be isolated with better rain chances coming for Friday and into the weekend.
Yesterday, I forecasted a low for today of 53 which I still think was a decent forecast considering that the low of 51 had to have only been reached for a very brief period because the hourly obs both before and after the low was reached both showed 53. I was banking on the winds staying up overnight, which they did for the most part, but they went calm for a few brief periods. I had mentioned the possibility of cloud cover last night, but I didn't have much faith in that. The air was so dry, but I thought models may have been picking up on blowoff from the system in the Gulf.
Tomorrow.........expect partly to mostly cloudy skies......low around 62 and a high around 78. Breezy conditions once again with a small chance of an afternoon shower/storm.
Today's high......83
Today's low.......51
It looks like the disturbance in the Gulf will just drift around in the Gulf for the next day or so, and some models bring it inland by around Friday and into the weekend before a shortwave trough comes and pushes it out of the area by around the middle or end of next week.
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