Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Forecast for May 20, 2009

Was originally thinking around 51...ish for tomorrow's low, but with winds expected to stay up tonight, I may go a little higher than that. Also with the possibility of some clouds moving in overnight, that could potentially hold temperatures up a bit. Raw guidance suggests lows only in the mid-upper 50s, but MOS is showing around 49-51. It seems Raw has been a bit high lately, so I may undercut it just a little. I went with a forecast low for this morning at around 49 based on the assumption that winds would stay up, but they went calm for a few hours last night. I guess that was enough to drop the low last night down to 46....the same scenario is kinda setting up tonight. A few questions I have are 1) will the winds really stay up overnight?, and 2) will clouds indeed move in overnight? I have better confidence in the winds staying up overnight tonight since all guidance seems to be showing that, and as that disturbance in the Gulf moves nearer, the pressure gradient should tighten some. I just wonder about the cloud cover really......with such dry air in place, it seems hard to get clouds in here overnight. I'm gonna go for it though based on these assumptions with........

Tomorrow......expect mostly sunny skies again, with clouds on the increase.....morning low around 53, and an afternoon high around 80.

Today's high....75
Today's low.....46

Continuing to watch the disturbance moving into the Gulf........it's not tropical yet, but will continue to watch for potential rain chances in here towards the end of the week and especially into the weekend.

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