Drier Air

It was pretty unusual but very welcome as we've had some much drier air start to move into the area with the passing of a COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF JUNE. I emphasize that because it is very strange to me to have a cold front actually push through this far south this time of the year. Anyway, like I said, it's very welcome, and you can expect these drier and somewhat cooler temps to continue through the next day or so. It looks like we will stay dry through tomorrow, but there could be a few showers/storms mainly in the northwestern parts of the state as another weak front moves down from the north. The entire state will probably be dry through Tuesday and Wednesday, but then we will see moisture begin to increase across the area once again by around mid-week. We will then have our next best chance of rainfall around here by the end of this week and into the weekend. For the short term, expect drier conditions with highs staying in the lower 90's for the next couple of days.

Confusing Forecast

The storms yesterday produced a ton of severe weather in the northeast part of the country. Most of this was wind damage, and there were no reports of tornadoes. We did actually have a few reports of hail in Mississippi in Lawrence county and also Hinds county. There is also a moderate risk for severe storms in parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa once again today as a cold front begins to move though that part of the country today. This front will really begin to affect our area by this weekend, but I don't think we'll be looking at the kind of severe weather that they will probably see.

Today, we could see some storms roughtly from about McComb to about Columbus and southeast of that line. Still a pretty warm day out there today also as highs get up to around 90 and the low only gets down to around 69 overnight. Tomorrow looks like we could actually be dry for the most part, and the highs will once again get up into the lower 90's. Friday is a little confusing to me because it looks to me like we'll be dry for the day on Friday, and then a good chance of rain for Saturday and Sunday as that front pushes through. The National Weather Service, however, has Friday with about a 60% chance of rain and then rain through the weekend. I don't see anything to really trigger storms for Friday, and I don't think that front will be close enough to really influence our weather. Models also show that cold front pushing all the way through by Sunday and leaving us with much cooler and drier conditions, and I have a problem with this because this time of year, it's really hard for fronts to push through. For now, I'm gonna say that we will probably be dry through tomorrow and also Friday, and then a good chance of rain moves in for Saturday into Sunday. I'm also thinking that front will stall somewhere to the north of us, and if it does, then you can probably bet on a chance of rain throughout the beginning of next week.

The tropics are also quite calm now. There are no tropical systems currently out there, but there was a tropical wave moving across the Atlantic yesterday. That system has really died down today.

Severe Weather Yesterday, More Storms Today

We actually had a pretty active day across the area yesterday, and we actually had a few reports of severe weather here in Mississippi. There was one report of penny size hail in Jasper county, trees down in Warren county, limbs down in Forrest county, trees down in Leake county, and numerous reports elsewhere across the country. Today could be another pretty active day mainly along and southeast of a line roughly from about Vicksburg to Corinth. Most of that activity will probably occur later this afternoon as we get some of that daytime heating, and then it should begin to die down after sunset. Some of the storms that build today could be quite strong once again with hail and gusty winds. Tomorrow looks to be pretty active also all across the state with a pretty good chance of some afternoon showers and storms once again. It looks like, right now, that Thursday could be a little less active, and Friday may be dry altogether. Another cold front will begin to approach the area this weekend and bump our rain chances up pretty good once again to make for what looks like a pretty wet weekend as that front just hangs up across the area and leaves us with a really uncomfortable, muggy atmosphere through much of next week.

As far as temps go, we will be a little bit cooler today than what we have been in a long time. Expect highs to get up to around 86 today and the low to get down to around 68, but with dewpoints still in the upper 60's to lower 70's, it will still feel very hot. Places that get some rainfall and cloud cover could be even lower than this, so that's one good side of the active weather.

A Little Heat Relief On The Way

Another hot day is in store for us today with high temps getting up to possibly the mid 90's and the overnight low getting down to around 70 once again. It looks like we will stay dry again today, but we could see a few showers/storms pop up across the area today in the afternoon. I wouldn't look for too much coverage from any storms that do build, but if you do get one, consider yourself lucky because it will help to cool things down a little. Tomorrow, we could begin to see some more coverage of showers/storms as a cold front begins to try to push through the area, but it won't quite make it through here. A line of storms will develop along the front and may make it into northwestern portions of the state, but elsewhere, it will probably just be more scattered activity. The good news in all this is that the high pressure that was built in across the area and giving us sooo much heat will finally shift off to the east and give us a break from the heat, but now we will have to deal with more shower/storm activity. It looks like it will be rainy all throughout the week too, so get used to it.

Across the nation, the Midwest continues to get pounded by severe weather. Yesterday there were just less than 60 reports of tornadoes and numerous reports of wind and hail damage.

Isolated showers/storms

Another hot day is in store for us today as our high gets up to around 93 and an overnight low only getting down to around 70. We could see some showers and storms building across mainly the southeastern portions of the state, but it looks like most of the activity will stay off to our east and southeast. We could see some better coverage of showers and storms as we head into tomorrow and Monday, but once again, most of that looks like it will be off to our east and southeast. Expect at least isolated showers and storms anywhere across the area through about next Thursday, but the chances of any one place getting one of these showers is very small. Our chances will gradually increase as we head into the middle of the week as that area of high pressure begins to slowly push off to the east and break down just a little. The big thing, at least for today, is just mainly the heat. With temps in the lower to mid 90's and dewpoints in the lower 70's, our heat indices could climb into the upper 90's, so you definitely want to be sure to drink plenty of water and try your best to stay cool.

On the bigger picture, the Midwest continues to get pounded with severe weather. Yesterday, there were nearly 20 reports of tornadoes mostly across Missouri and Illinois. Today, there is a moderate risk of severe weather for much of the Midwestern states once again.

Hot and Dry With Rain to Come

It looks like another hot and dry day across the area today as highs get up to around 92 and the overnight low only gets down to around 70. We could see a small chance of rain come into the picture as early as Sunday, but mainly along the southern portions of the state. Then, as we head into the beginning of next week and towards the middle of next week, our rain chances will gradually increase, but then it looks like we will begin to dry out after around Wednesday or Thursday.

....Hot

It looks like another very hot day for us around here with highs getting into the lower 90's once again, and it also looks like we will remain dry through the weekend. It doesn't look like we will really see another chance of rainfall around here until around the beginning of next week.

Another day of severe weather in the plains states again today. SPC has placed Kansas, Nebrask, and Iowa in a high risk of severe weather for today. A strong low pressure system is currently situated in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, and it will track off to the north northeast around a ridge of high pressure that continues to keep us dry around here. Several severe weather warnings are in place already in Kansas, Nebraska, and even Colorado. It looks to be a very active day once again for this area of the country. There were also numerous reports of severe weather across the north yesterday including almost 50 reports of tornadoes.

Continued Hot and Humid

Severe weather is currently breaking out from Virginia and back over into southern Ohio and northern Kentucky with a secondary area of severe weather expected to stretch from Colorado to Iowa and Missouri. There were numerous severe weather reports yesterday all across the northern U.S., and most of these were wind reports with around 18 reports of tornadoes so far.

Around here, it's just continued hot and humid, and it looks like this will continue through the weekend and even into the early part of next week as our weather continues to be heavily influenced by high pressure. Expect highs today to get up into the lower 90's and remain there through the weekend and lows only getting down to the upper 60's and lower 70's. Models are still continuing to try and show something developing in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend and early next week, but again, this area does not look too favorable for any kind of significant development. We'll just wait and see what happens with this.

HOT!!!

Currently, off to our northeast, parts of Ohio are getting hit by a complex of storms that are riding along a stalled frontal boundary, and there is also a moderate risk zone from western Missouri through southern Ohio. There is alot of scattered storms across the southeast also from about eastern Alabama to the Carolinas and also down into Florida.

Around here......it looks like we'll be remaining dry for the remainder of the work-week with highs hanging in the lower to mid-90's, but we'll begin to see another system move out of the Rockies by the end of the week and this weekend. It looks like that one will skate off to the north of us, but it's really too early to tell for sure. Either way, this weekend and beginning of next week looks pretty interesting as some of the long-range models continue to show some kind of disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend and early next week. This area does not really look too favorable for development, therefore, I'm not too concerned with this right now. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out though. For the short term, though, it looks like we will just be dealing with some very hot and humid weather, and even though the calendar doesn't say it's summer yet, that thermometer says otherwise.

Afternoon Heat and Storms

Well, we did see a few damage reports from the severe weather we had in here yesterday, mostly the north and eastern portions of the state, but notice across Oklahoma and Arkansas where they had numerous wind damage reports from that complex early yesterday morning. Also another big thing with the storms from yesterday was the unbelievable light show that was caused by them. There were tons of lightning strikes associated with the storms yesterday. Here are a couple of pictures of some mammatus clouds that I took after the storm had passed in meridian. They didn't come out as good as I had hoped, but I think you probably get the idea.

Today just looks like a pretty typical summer day. Very hot and humid with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Right now, it is ALREADY 81 degrees with a dewpoint temperature of 73 degrees, so we've already got alot of heat and moisture in place. Our high temps will reach up into the lower 90's today, and we'll see a chance of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms once agin, but most of this activity should be very scattered. There is also a small chance that a few of these storms could become strong-severe with hail and strong winds being the main concern and also very dangerous lightning. Once the sun goes down, I expect all of the activity that does develop to dimish.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Noxubee and Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9:00

Some pretty nasty looking storms have begun to fire in northern Mississippi, Alabama, and that complex of storms in Arkansas still persists also. That complex has just now begun to cross the Mississippi River. We have recieved a good bit of sunshine here over the past several hours that have really allowed us to heat up and destabilize the atmosphere. We have now reached a temperature of 90 degrees with a dewpoint of 70 degrees. A few severe thunderstorm warnings are now in effect for Noxubee county and numerous severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for Alabama.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDTFOR EASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY...
AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRAIRIE POINT...OR 19 MILES WEST OF ALICEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 14 MPH. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS ALSO NOTED OVER BIGBEE VALLEY AND MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH AND WILL EXIT THE COUNTY BY 4 PM.


A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect until 9:00 p.m for southeastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi.

Severe Weather?

Currently, our temperature in Meridian is 84 with a dewpoint temperature of 72, so the air is ALREADY very warm and moist. We already have a cluster of rain and thunderstorms back in parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma that have several severe thunderstorm warnings with them, but a little bit closer to home.....we are actually already seeing a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm building across our area. Most of this activity should remain very isolated until later this afternoon when we begin to see an upper level disturbance move across the northeastern part of the state, and then things should start to calm down after midnight when this disturbance pushes off to the southeast. As for the threat of severe weather....the SPC has placed an area from roughly along and north of a line from Meridian to maybe Greenville in a slight risk of severe weather, but I'm thinking that any severe weather as far south as Meridian will probably be very isolated with greater coverage along the north and northeastern parts of the state. The main threats look to still be hail, strong winds, and also very dangerous lightning, so if you do get any kind of thunderstorm, you need to move indoors.....if you can hear the thunder, then you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Keep in mind, also, that if we get any peeks of sunshine in here, then that will only help to destabilize the atmosphere, but it looks like we have a pretty good cloud deck in place right now. However, visible and infrared images are showing a few breaks in the clouds across the state.

Tropical Storm Arthur

Not a whole lot has changed in the forecast, but severe weather is breaking out in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas including two tornado warnings. As you already know, Kansas and Missouri was hit pretty hard just yesterday by severe weather and tornadoes, so these areas could really use a break. The big thing is that the first Atlantic named storm has formed and moved over parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. With the official start of hurricane season beginning tomorrow, we have certainly kicked it off right. This storm has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph and was moving to the west at around 7 mph. Right now, the storm is expected to remain over land for about the next 3 days and weaken to a tropical depression, but it is still very uncertain.

Storms Tomorrow?

Well, it was another active day for much of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio as they had numerous reports of severe weather including about 17 reports of tornadoes.

Not a very big story around here.....just alot of heat and humidity. Right now it is 85 degrees with a dewpoint of 69 degrees, so it is already very hot and very humid. There's not really alot that's changed with the forecast, but the SPC has moved their slight risk zone of severe weather a good bit further north; now very little, if any, of Mississippi is in this zone. I'm not too surprised by this as the cold front is still forecast to stall in Tennessee, and most of the shower and storm activity will be along that front. This front will try to sink southward through our area tomorrow through Monday, and this is where the forecast seems to get a little tricky. It seems like the real determining factor for who really sees the rain is going to rest on how far east a ridge of high pressure in the southern U.S. will build. It looks like right now that the best places to see any kind of significant rainfall will be the eastern and northern portions of the state. The further south and west you go, the lesser the chance of any showers and storms from this system. The severe threat seems fairly small right now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few warnings issued. Again, the main threat will be hail and gusty winds and also dangerous lightning. I will leave you with something pretty interesting happening on one of the long-range models, and that is an area of low pressure showing up in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. This area doesn't look too favorable for very much tropical development, but it will be interesting to watch.

Just Hot and Humid

Yesterday proved to be a very active day for the plains states once again with more than 50 reports of tornadoes, and most of which occurred in Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. Here's a look at the SPC's storm reports for yesterday.



We've also had our first named tropical system of the season, which WAS Tropical Storm Alma. It made landfall near Leon, Nicaragua and has since been downgraded to a tropical depression. In its final advisory, Alma had maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph and was continuing to track slowly off to the north at about 10 mph.

It looks like we'll stay dry throughout today and also Saturday, but by Sunday, we'll see a cold front begin to slowly work its way down from the north. We could possibly be seeing some showers and storms in here as early as sunday afternoon, but it looks like the heaviest rainfall will occur to the north and east of here as that front will stall around southern Tennessee. The SPC has already placed roughly the northern half of Mississippi in a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow into Saturday and the northeastern quarter of Mississippi for Sunday into Monday. I don't look for anything like what the plains have been getting here lately, but some of these storms could produce some hail and strong winds. As far as temps go, it looks like we have hit summer even though the calendar does not say so. Expect high temps to be in the lower 90's and overnight lows only getting down into the mid and upper 60's. Combine that with dewpoints in the upper 60's and lower 70's, and we are looking at heat indices in the mid-upper 90's. It looks like we have finally hit that typical summertime heat and humidity.

Afternoon Storms

The past several weeks have been very active especially in the plains states, and actually produced the second EF-5 tornado in history in Parkersburg-New Hartford, Iowa. However, with the old Fujita scale, this tornado would only be rated as an F3 tornado because its peak wind speeds were estimated to be around 205 m.p.h. This would make it a high end F3 tornado on the old Fujita scale, but with the new "enhanced" Fujita scale, it is rated an EF-5. Either way, it was a very bad storm that actually resulted in 7 confirmed deaths and at least 70 injuries and a ton of damage. Here is a radar image of that storm showing a nasty hook on the southwest side of the storm.

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On to the weather around here (Meridian), we'll see an old frontal boundary that pushed through here just basically fizzle out over the area and still give us a shot of seeing some showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but that's just a very small chance. Actually on radar now, there are a few light showers beginning to build mostly along and south of I-20. I wouldn't expect to see alot of coverage out of these showers, but it'll be something to watch. We are still in a drought, so any rain that does fall around here will be very beneficial. The showers and storms that do develop today should begin to die down after sunset.

On to the big picture, a surface low is currently sitting in southeast Colorado that will track off to the north-northeast and is pulling up mid-upper 60 degree dewpoints along with temps in the mid 70's all the way into Nebraska and even as far north as south Dakota creating incredible instability throughout the plains states once again. There is also and upper level feature in northeastern Montana that will begin to push off to the east and enhance the risk of severe weather in these areas. The SPC has actually placed a good part of Nebraska and Iowa in a high risk for severe weather. In fact storms are already beginning to fire in parts of Kansas and Nebraska and severeal severe weather warnings are already being issued. The threat for severe weather will push a little to the north and east for tomorrow. By the end of the weekend and beginning of next week, this system will begin to affect our areas but just giving us a better chance of showers and storms. This is the SPC's convective outlook for today.