Charleston, SC forecast for September 29, 2009

Well just lovely......the first wxchallenge forecast day is showing a midnight low. MOS is from 58-59.....Raw is upper 50s to lower 60s, so still some pretty good agreement amongst the models as far as tomorrow's low......highs however have a bit of a spread......Raw GFS is around mid-70s.....Raw Nam is around upper 70s and both NAM and GFS MOS is right at 80. It should be noted that I'm looking at the 12z Raw GFS and 18z Raw Nam......I will likely hold off on a final decision until the 18z GFS comes in. Locations to their northwest today that are behind the front have stayed primarily in the mid to upper 70s, so my initial thoughts right now are to go with upper 70s for tomorrow's high. Last night's 0z MOS had tomorrow's high at 81, so it has only gone down one degree......Right now....I'm thinking lows around the mid-upper 50s and highs in the upper 70s.......winds in the upper teens to near 20 kts....it looks like there will be some pretty windy conditions as the front comes in, but winds should begin to weaken some towards morning and pick back up again in the afternoon........rainfall, RIGHT NOW, is zero however, both Nam and GFS try to put a little rainfall in their area overnight tonight along the front....there is some activity off to their northwest right now...Raw GFS(12z) shows no rainfall, but Raw Nam has around 0.05 but ending before midnight, and RUC also puts some activity developing across their area after midnight, so it really looks like alot will depend on the exact timing of that front and whether or not the line will fill in.....all this is very light generally<0.07"...As I am writing this, the activity to their north appears to be dying some......I feel like it will be shortly after midnight when the front makes it through, and I think I will likely keep rainfall at nil.....but will hold off until 18z data comes out to make my final decision.........

Update......18z Raw GFS was almost exactly the same and shower/storm activity to their north/northwest continues to weaken so...........

Forecast for tomorrow......
High - 78
Low - 58
Wind Speed - 21 kts
Precip - 0.00


Today's Actuals......
High - 89
Low - 64
Max Wind - 21 (even though I didn't forecast a speed)
Precip - 0