Snowy Mississippi

.....Significant winter storm looks to be on the horizon for pretty much all of Mississippi.....winter storm watches have overspread much of the southern states from northern/north central Texas eastward through Alabama....most of which I suspect will be upgraded to warnings before all is said and done.....so how have things changed? Well models are finally starting to get in decent agreement and consistency for both the strength and track of the surface low, but amounts still vary quite a bit......one is calling for between 1 and 2 inches while another is between about 4 and 6 inches. The weather service has gone up on their accumulations also where they now have roughly along I-20 to Hwy 84 getting between 4 and 6 inches, between I-20 and Hwy 82 getting between 2 and 4 inches, and north of Hwy 82 between 1 and 2 inches.....I haven't really been able to pick out much of a trend with the models depiction of precip amounts cuz they have really been all over the place, but so far from what I'm seeing, I kinda like the 2-4 inch range around here....this is just preliminary and will likely need to be adjusted, but this is just my thinking right now and also a generalization. What I mean by "generalization" is that I think these amounts will be what most locations see, but with the potential for deformation zones/banding precip, some locations could see significantly higher amounts. I think that we could see light rain echoes showing up on radar as early as early tomorrow afternoon, however I think most of it will evaporate before reaching the surface. What this will do is allow the atmosphere to moisten up and due to cooling from evaporation, it will help to cool the atmosphere. With the absence of any real southerly flow to bring in any kind of warm air at the surface or aloft as was the case with the last system, I think that evaporational cooling will have a much more significant effect than the previous snow setup we had several weeks back that turned into a complete bust. I think we will see primarily a snow event around here, but I'm seeing more indications that it could switch over to freezing rain towards the end of the event as dry air begins to get entrained into the mid levels and we lose moisture in the snow growth region. I don't think sleet will be much of a concern because I don't really see any kind of melting layer aloft that would support any partial melting of the snowflake to allow for sleet development. Bottom line....RIGHT NOW what I'm thinking is very similar to the weather service except in the area of the switchover to freezing rain at the end, but I do very much agree with their outlined zones and accumulations just maybe shifted slightly further south. This being the general idea but with isolated higher amounts if and where deformation zones/banding precip occurs. So tomorrow....I think radar will likely start picking up rain as early as early afternoon, but I don't think most of it will be reaching the ground due to dry lower levels. Once we get saturated, I think we could see a brief period of light rain or mix of light rain/snow before switching over to all snow by late afternoon/early evening and lasting through the overnight hours and finally coming to an end Friday afternoon as either a mix of freezing rain and snow or possibly all freezing rain.