Forecast for June 4, 2009

I don't really understand what's going on with guidance today.......MOS is showing 64 and Raw is showing lower to mid-60s.....my problem with this is that last night, we reached a low of 66 with near clear skies and light to calm winds. Cloud cover should be greater tonight than last night, and locations to our southeast only dropped to around the upper 60's to near 70 overnight. I'm thinking I will go over all guidance values right now and go at least around 67-68 for the low. With cloudy skies expected tomorrow and a good chance of rain, I think lower 80's seems reasonable since we only reached 85 so far today. Guidance is all in good agreement on this, both Raw and MOS. Now, for the bigger question.....RAINFALL!! HPC is showing around 1.12" for tomorrow....GFS Raw is showing around 1.00".......and Nam is showing less than 0.10". It's tricky because if you get a heavier storm, you could easily see around an inch or more. HPC, however, is showing a pretty widespread area of over an inch. With what appears to be a pretty slow-moving system, I think I will go around an inch possible out of this system for tomorrow....UPDATE!!.....Raw NAM is now kinda getting on board with both overnight lows and rainfall. It's now showing rainfall amounts possibly up to around a quarter of an inch and a low around 70 tonight.....I think all guidance will come in a bit warmer for tonight, so with this kinda confirming it, I will go with the upper 60s at least for the overnight low and keep rainfall amounts of around an inch.

Tomorrow.........expect mostly cloudy skies with better rain/storm chances.......low around 69 and a high around 82. Rainfall amounts around an inch are possible. A front will come through and cool us briefly for the day on Friday and bring in some drier air, but then we will heat right back up for the weekend.

NWS forecast for tomorrow........Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly between 11am and 4pm. High near 82. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.....low 66.

Today's high.....85
Today's low......66